There are heavy debates about what “modern classics” are.
Most shows won’t be remembered in a few years.
There are multiple factors that contribute to the staying power of an anime.
There is a constant debate about whether something is a classic or not. More broadly speaking, people always get curious about how well their favorite shows will fare in, say, 5 or 10 years.
The reality, however, is more disappointing than one would expect.
So many possibilities
There seems to be an almost endless selection of seasonal shows to watch nowadays. Some, naturally, get more traction and have a lot of clout and discussion around them; some end up having just a small amount of watchers. It seems that the fans of the more popular series are always adamant about them being “modern classics” that will be remembered and praised even years later. That might be true for some series — don’t think the popularity of Attack on Titan (Shingeki no Kyojin) is waning anytime soon, if ever — but for many of them, the staying power is severely overestimated. In the age of infinite choices, most of them will undoubtedly drift away from being in the spotlight.
Crux of the problem
Searchers for modern classics often seem to miss very important details that contribute to how popular the anime is in the long term. Indeed, even if a show is very popular during the time it is airing, it doesn’t guarantee it will stay on people’s minds. You can just look at shows that aired 5-6 years ago to see the effects.
How many people still talk about Blend S? What about Gamers!, Banana Fish, or Tsuki ga Kirei? All of these were among the more popular shows during the time they were airing, and now they are shoved to the back of people’s minds, not quite considered forgotten or obscure, but still almost irrelevant to current anime discourse. It’s even more prominently seen with shows that aired 10 years ago. The most popular show of Winter 2013, according to MyAnimeList, is… Problem Children Are Coming from Another World, Aren't They? (Mondaiji-tachi ga Isekai kara Kuru Sou desu yo?). Yeah, who even remembers that was a thing?
Factors to account for
…of which there are many. Yeah, a show getting multiple seasons often helps its popularity, but as seen with something like Osomatsu-san (which got 3 seasons and is still largely unknown), that alone won’t help. Being written by a known author, or just being an adaptation of very popular source material — Shounen Jump manga usually falls into this category — will boost the popularity a lot.
Curiously enough, original anime usually quickly fall into obscurity even if the author is famous: Tappei Nagatsuki’s Warlords of Sigrdrifa (Senyoku no Sigrdrifa) is a title most people already forgot about, and it’s quite likely even the more well-received Vivy: Fluorite Eye's Song will not be remembered forever. Being adapted by a widely known studio, or just having stunning visuals overall, definitely helps as well. There is little doubt Violet Evergarden would be as popular as it is if it was not made by Kyoto Animation. In the end, the only sure answer one can provide for the question “Will this be popular in half a decade?” is “Only time will tell.”
At least Demon Slayer probably will.
Summary:
There are heavy debates about what “modern classics” are.
Most shows won’t be remembered in a few years.
There are multiple factors that contribute to the staying power of an anime.
There is a constant debate about whether something is a classic or not. More broadly speaking, people always get curious about how well their favorite shows will fare in, say, 5 or 10 years.
The reality, however, is more disappointing than one would expect.
So many possibilities
There seems to be an almost endless selection of seasonal shows to watch nowadays. Some, naturally, get more traction and have a lot of clout and discussion around them; some end up having just a small amount of watchers. It seems that the fans of the more popular series are always adamant about them being “modern classics” that will be remembered and praised even years later. That might be true for some series — don’t think the popularity of Attack on Titan (Shingeki no Kyojin) is waning anytime soon, if ever — but for many of them, the staying power is severely overestimated. In the age of infinite choices, most of them will undoubtedly drift away from being in the spotlight.
Crux of the problem
Searchers for modern classics often seem to miss very important details that contribute to how popular the anime is in the long term. Indeed, even if a show is very popular during the time it is airing, it doesn’t guarantee it will stay on people’s minds. You can just look at shows that aired 5-6 years ago to see the effects.
How many people still talk about Blend S? What about Gamers!, Banana Fish, or Tsuki ga Kirei? All of these were among the more popular shows during the time they were airing, and now they are shoved to the back of people’s minds, not quite considered forgotten or obscure, but still almost irrelevant to current anime discourse. It’s even more prominently seen with shows that aired 10 years ago. The most popular show of Winter 2013, according to MyAnimeList, is… Problem Children Are Coming from Another World, Aren't They? (Mondaiji-tachi ga Isekai kara Kuru Sou desu yo?). Yeah, who even remembers that was a thing?
Factors to account for
…of which there are many. Yeah, a show getting multiple seasons often helps its popularity, but as seen with something like Osomatsu-san (which got 3 seasons and is still largely unknown), that alone won’t help. Being written by a known author, or just being an adaptation of very popular source material — Shounen Jump manga usually falls into this category — will boost the popularity a lot.
Curiously enough, original anime usually quickly fall into obscurity even if the author is famous: Tappei Nagatsuki’s Warlords of Sigrdrifa (Senyoku no Sigrdrifa) is a title most people already forgot about, and it’s quite likely even the more well-received Vivy: Fluorite Eye's Song will not be remembered forever. Being adapted by a widely known studio, or just having stunning visuals overall, definitely helps as well. There is little doubt Violet Evergarden would be as popular as it is if it was not made by Kyoto Animation. In the end, the only sure answer one can provide for the question “Will this be popular in half a decade?” is “Only time will tell.”
